Seven Democratic primary candidates are vying to run for Rep. Joe Kennedy III’s (D-Mass.) House seat in November in one of the most competitive primaries in the state.
With the popular representative challenging incumbent Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), the House race to replace him is the most expensive in the state. The field includes all imaginable shades of progressive and traditional Democrats, and a former Republican.
As the field has narrowed from the initial 12 candidates, a handful are within striking distance of a victory, including former Republican Jake Auchincloss, moderate Becky Grossman and progressives Jesse Mermell and Ihssane Leckey. But recent polling shows that many voters are still undecided and the race is in flux.
Voters from the mostly-white, wealthy and historically Democratic 4th District, which stretches from the state’s south coast into the Boston suburbs, will take to the polls on Sept. 1. The winner is certain to defeat the Republican in November.
The most divisive candidate, and most conservative in the pack, is Auchincloss, a Marine Corps veteran and one of two Newton City Council members running for the House seat. In late July, the Boston Globe endorsed Auchincloss, a move met with swift backlash from candidates as well as members of the Globe’s own editorial team.
Still, the Globe endorsement gave Auchincloss a major jump in the polls, from a middling candidate in June to a top contender in the crowded pack in August.
Auchincloss was a registered Republican until 2014. He was also scrutinized over a 2010 Facebook post commenting on a news story about Iranians burning the American flag. Auchincloss wrote, referencing the Quran, “so we can’t burn their book, but they can burn our flag?” He has since apologized for the comment. A week after the Globe endorsed Auchincloss, the paper’s business columnist, Shirley Leung, penned her own endorsement of Mermell, which ran in the paper’s editorial section.
Auchincloss has raised over $1.7 million, with most of his money coming from large individual contributions. The lead employers of his contributors are affiliates of the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, where his mother Laurie Glimcher is president; and Harvard University, his alma mater. Auchincloss is also backed by a new super PAC, Experienced Leadership Matters. The single-candidate group was formed in May and received over one-third of its $511,000 from Auchincloss’ parents and step-father. Women Vote!, which is affiliated with EMILY’s List, has spent nearly $350,000 attacking Auchincloss.
Three polls have been conducted through the course of the primary, one in June by Grossman’s campaign, another earlier this month by Leckey’s campaign and reported by The Intercept, and a third released days after Leckey’s by the progressive think tank Data for Progress. The polls all show a tight race without a clear leader, but the latest has Auchincloss tied with the progressive Mermell, who had trailed in previous polls.
Mermell’s jump in the polls came amid a rush of endorsements, including from former competitors who dropped out of the race this month. She’s raised just over $1 million so far, with most coming from large individual donors. She also leads the field in PAC money with $21,000, almost all from labor groups.
The dam appeared to break when Dave Cavell, another progressive candidate, dropped out of the race and endorsed Mermell. Both are alumni of former Gov. Deval Patrick’s administration. In a subsequent interview with the Boston Globe, Cavell said that he didn’t want to split the progressive vote, especially with Auchincloss in the race, who Cavell called “the elephant in the room — pun intended.”
Cavell’s exit came days after Leckey’s poll was released, which had Mermell at 11 percent and Auchincloss at 16 percent. While Cavell’s endorsement came on the penultimate day of the survey period for the Data for Progress poll, the bump was apparent. Mermell jumped to the front of the race, tied with Auchincloss.
Following Cavell’s endorsement, Attorney General Maura Healey, whose progressive credentials have made her popular among the state’s Democrats, also endorsed Mermell. Cavell was an advisor to Healey until beginning his congressional race.
Just Wednesday, tech entrepreneur Chris Zannetos dropped out and endorsed Mermell as well. In both the June and August polls, Zannetos had just 1 percent support, though he managed to raise over $815,000.
And on Thursday, Mermell was endorsed by progressive ice cream makers Ben and Jerry.
As the endorsements started to rack up, Mermell also saw a near-immediate boost from a pop-up PAC, the Toughest Fights PAC. Formed in early July, the group will not have to reveal its contributors until after the primary. Days after Cavell and Healey’s endorsements, the group made its first independent expenditure, buying television ads in the district. The ads tout Mermell’s progressive credentials, including her endorsement from Massachusetts progressive star Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.).
With Pressley and Healey behind her, Mermell has some of the strongest progressive endorsements in the race. On Tuesday, she also received the endorsement of Democratic House candidate Ritchie Torres, a New York city council member who defeated a controversial and entrenched Bronx political figure in New York’s 15th District primary, all but securing the seat as a young progressive poised to be one of the first openly gay Black members of Congress.
Although Mermell and Auchincloss are tied as frontrunners, it’s yet to become a two-person race. Earlier polls, including one from the beginning of August, showed Grossman, the other member of the Newton City Council in the race, with a slight lead. And according to the latest poll, she trails Auchincloss and Mermell by four points, just within the margin of error.
Grossman is a former assistant district attorney in Middlesex County, with a record of working on issues of criminal justice reform. She’s the daughter-in-law of Steven Grossman, who previously served as chairman of the Massachusetts Democratic Party, chairman of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, chairman of the Democratic National Committee and Massachusetts state treasurer.
Grossman has raised $1.4 million, making her the third-largest fundraiser in the race, but $430,000 came from her own pockets, with most of the rest stemming from large individual contributions.
Her ads highlight her personal story, with one from July about being a mom, with Grossman saying that she would add to the only 25 women with young children currently in Congress, and another from August about her own mother.
She has the endorsement of former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development and 2020 Democratic presidential candidate Julian Castro, gun control advocacy group Moms Demand Action, two local firefighters unions and over a dozen current and former Massachusetts Democratic politicians on the state and county levels, including State Senate Majority Leader Cindy Creem.
The other candidate within striking distance of victory is Leckey, who has positioned herself as the most progressive candidate. While Leckey trailed Grossman and Auchincloss in the polls, she saw the biggest gain between the Grossman campaign’s June poll and her own campaign’s August poll.
Leckey is a Democratic Socialist, a Moroccan immigrant and a former Wall Street regulator for the Federal Reserve. Her campaign is largely self-funded; she’s put in just over $1 million of her own money. Of that, $850,000 came in following a poor performance in the Grossman campaign’s June poll.
She’s used her refusal of corporate PAC and lobbyist money, as well as her relatively small contributions from large donors, as a means of separating herself from better-funded candidates in ads.
In early July, the Leckey campaign made its first major ad buy at $300,000. In recent ads, she’s highlighted her personal story of rising from poverty to power, as well as her progressive platform that includes Medicare for All, free pre-kindergarten and housing reforms. Leckey is endorsed by Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) and a number of figures in the Massachusetts progressive movement.
Yet two weeks ago, Leckey rejected the endorsement from Democratic Socialists of America Boston as they weighed rescinding their support amid a controversy involving allegations of abuse from multiple members of her staff.
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