Michigan’s U.S. Senate race between incumbent Democrat Gary Peters and Republican challenger John James remains hotly contested with less than a week until the Nov. 3 election.
Republicans pinned their hopes on James, a 39-year-old businessman and Iraq war veteran who unsuccessfully ran in 2018, to prevent Peters from securing a second six-year term. Likewise, Democrats need the Bloomfield Township senator to keep his seat if they want to retake the Senate majority, putting national attention on the most expensive race in Michigan’s history.
Republican U.S. Senate candidate John James greets the crowd at a rally for President Donald Trump Thursday, Sept. 10, 2020 in Freeland Mich. (Nicole Hester | MLive.com)Nicole Hester/Mlive.com
No Republican has been elected to represent Michigan in the U.S. Senate since 1994, but the state had been allied with Democratic presidential candidates for even longer when President Donald Trump pulled off a narrow victory in 2016.
Pollsters and political forecasters expect Trump will have a tougher time winning the state again four years later, and Peters could benefit from a surge in Democratic turnout motivated by removing Trump from the White House.
Polls of likely voters consistently find Peters with a lead, and political handicappers also predict the Democratic senator will fend off his opponent. However, political experts also say James’ team organized a more polished campaign, compared to his first bid, that could surprise Democrats who see his fate inescapably tied to Trump.
“Peters is not very well known in the state, let’s put it that way,” said Vincent Hutchings, a research professor at the University of Michigan’s Center for Political Studies. "This contributes to James' ability to make for a really serious contest. He may be running the strongest race of all the Republican competitors for the Senate in this election cycle.”
The Michigan Campaign Finance Network, a nonpartisan watchdog group, estimated more than $130 million will be spent on broadcast ads alone. That doesn’t include millions more being spent on digital advertisements, direct mail or spending from so-called “dark money” groups that can obfuscate their activities.
The Senate race is poised to outpace the $93.4 million spent on Michigan’s 2018 gubernatorial race and vastly eclipses the $40 million spent on the race between James and U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Lansing, in the same year.
Republican Senate hopeful John James met with Kalamazoo Mortgage Hero Salute on Monday, July 20, 2020, writing a $10,000 check to the group to support a scholarship fund. Nicole Hester/Mlive.com
All this money has resulted in vicious attack ads, many of which have been exposed as misleading by fact checkers in the media.
Is it possible that Michigan voters could elect James and reject Trump? Yes, Hutchings said, though it would be tough in a year where Democrats appear to have more momentum.
“Michigan is not so blue that Republicans never have a shot at statewide office, Republicans actually do quite well at statewide offices and dominate at the Legislative level,” Hutchings said. “The notion that James could win and Biden could win is not at all improbable."
That’s assuming voters know Peters is a Democrat before seeing his name on the ballot. John Sellek, a veteran GOP campaign strategist and founder of Harbor Strategic Public Affairs, noted that many of the senator’s ads don’t mention his party affiliation.
“He’s probably the only Democrat Senate candidate in the country who ran an ad with Donald Trump in a positive light, that (Peters) had sat down at the table and was able to get things done with Donald Trump,” Sellek said during a forum hosted by MLive. “Peters is obviously a smart guy. He’s been through politics for a very long time. He has the experience to know what he’s doing, but his campaign has been more about that ‘he’s the best constituent service guy’ in a way that hasn’t captured the attention of people.”
U.S. Sen. Gary Peters, D-Bloomfield Township, kicked off a week-long campaign road trip on Monday, Aug. 31, 2020 from Warren, Mich. Statewide motorcycle tours are an annual tradition for Peters, who is seeking a second term in the U.S. Senate this year. (Malachi Barrett | MLive.com)
Regardless, Peters appears to have increased his lead in the last stretch of the race.
A new poll from Lansing-based Glengariff Group taken between Oct. 23-25 found James trailing by 9 percentage points. Peters led James by 5 points in a Glengariff poll conducted from Sept. 30 to Oct. 3 and was up by 3 points in another poll from early September.
Another poll conducted Oct. 25-27 by Mitchell Research and Communications found Peters leading by 9 points. The Democratic senator also increased his lead from an earlier poll the firm collected on Oct. 18.
“This is not a good year for Republicans,” Hutchings said. “That suggests to me that the undecideds are more likely than not to break toward Peters, especially in a state where Biden will have some coattails, presumably.”
David Dulio, director of Oakland University’s Center for Civic Engagement, said James remains “tainted" by some of his past statements on the campaign trail just two years ago. Several advertisements purchased by groups supporting Peters aimed to remind voters that James’ stood “2,000%” with Trump and called the Affordable Care Act a “monstrosity.”
Dulio said James has a ready-for-primetime image “straight out of central casting” that plays well when the race has largely been conducted on TV screens.
“He’s charismatic; he’s young; he’s vibrant; he has business experience; he’s a vet; he has all these things he can draw on,” Dulio. “I think that’s really an effective thing to be drawn to.”
Senator hopeful John James and Vice President Mike Pence address the crowd on Friday Aug. 28, 2020 in Traverse City. Nicole Hester/Mlive.com
Peters and James are making their closing argument to voters alongside big-name surrogates with days left until the election.
Peters joined Biden and former President Barack Obama during Oct. 31 campaign stops in Michigan. He also held events starring Rev. Al Sharpton and Jill Biden last week.
James has been a feature of Trump rallies throughout the campaign cycle, most recently warming up a crowd of several thousand supporters at a rally the president held in Lansing on Tuesday. James also held an event with former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley in Novi Thursday.
Based on the candidates' descriptions of each other, the 2020 election is a race between an “invisible” senator and a challenger with “no substance.” The candidates have turned up the heat with direct attacks on one another as Nov. 3 approaches.
James argues Peters hasn’t done much for voters during his six years in the Senate and previous terms in the U.S. House. Peters argues that his opponent has no substantive policy solutions and is running on vague GOP talking points.
Peters took aim at James during a drive-in rally held outside Historic King Solomon Baptist Church in Detroit on Wednesday, criticizing his support for Trump and Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett. Trump’s third Supreme Court nominee was confirmed by the Senate this week without Peters' support. The senator argued Barrett would rule to end the Affordable Care Act, causing 4 million Michiganders with pre-existing conditions to lose their health coverage.
“He said it was a good day when the Supreme Court Justice was confirmed,” Peters told a crowd of several dozen Detroiters. “It was not a good day. She’s going to put our health care at risk. That is not a good day, Mr. James.”
Republican Senate hopeful John James meets with organizers supporting his campaign in Portage on Monday, July 20, 2020. Nicole Hester/Mlive.com
James has supported replacing the Affordable Care Act, and making changes to the Obama-era law that improves upon it. James expanded on his position in an op-ed published in the Detroit News, pledging to “insist" on legislation that protects preexisting conditions.
Hutchings said Republicans are vulnerable on this subject, as the Trump administration supports a lawsuit that could overturn the ACA during a pandemic. Trump has long vowed to eliminate Obamacare, but hasn’t revealed what policy would prevent health insurers from denying coverage to people with preexisting conditions.
“Neither James nor the Republican Party nor the president of the United States has put forward a plan that is distinct from the Affordable Care Act that would ostensibly accomplish the same thing,” Hutchings said.
Peters says he is one of the most bipartisan and productive senators in Congress. The freshman senator, who serves in the minority party, introduced eight bills signed into law by Trump.
In Lansing, James said “gaslight Gary Peters" tried to deny one of the most capable women in the country a job.
“Let’s also talk about what 30-year career politician Gary Peters, who has a six-figure taxpayer-funded salary $250,000 pension and a gold-plated taxpayer-funded exclusive health care plan you don’t have access to. Let’s talk about what he’s doing,” James said. “He’s not showing up for us.”
James describes himself to voters as a personification of the American dream, retelling his family’s generational triumph over slavery, sharecropping and segregation to eventually build a business in Detroit. James served in the U.S. Army before becoming president of James Group International, an auto supply chain management business.
Oakland County resident Denise Ingram attended the drive-in rally Peters held Wednesday. She was more excited to see Sharpton, who railed against James for standing alongside the president and Education Secretary Betsy DeVos.
“I don’t know a lot about Peters, but I know we have to vote for him while we can and hope he does better,” Ingram said. “He needs to step his game up for the Black community ... I know John James surely ain’t the one for us. Anytime he says he wants to back Trump 2,000%, that’s too much.”
Evettee Dekes, a 60-year-old Detroit resident, said she “reluctantly” voted straight-ticket for Democratic candidates, including Peters.
“Gary Peters, I don’t know what he’s done. He’s a Democrat,” Dekes said. “It’s all about money, who has the most commercials. Who has time to fact check? I don’t have time to fact check those commercials. It’s a nasty campaign.”
Novi resident Rosewell Barranco, 71, wore a James campaign T-shirt to Vice President Mike Pence’s rally in Flint on Wednesday after seeing the Republican Senate candidate speak in Sterling Heights the same day. Barranco expects James has a stronger chance of beating Peters compared to Stabenow, who is better known across the state.
“He knows how to create jobs, he’s a true believer in God and family duty and knows what it’s like to grow up a Black," Barranco said. “I think he’ll do a good job.”
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