Is the Trump-Biden cake baked yet? - Roll Call

ANALYSIS — Four years ago, at about this point in the election cycle, national polls showed Donald Trump in a deep political hole.

An Oct. 10-13, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found Hillary Clinton with a 10-point lead, 51 percent to 41 percent. An Oct. 10-12, 2016 Fox News poll showed Clinton leading by 8 points, 49 percent to 41 percent. And the Oct. 10-13, 2016 ABC News/Washington Post poll showed Clinton holding a much narrower lead of 4 points, 50 percent to 46 percent.

Obviously, Trump came back to win the presidency even while losing the popular vote by 2.1 points. The national polls were right. They (and we) simply missed the obvious possibility that someone could win the popular vote handily and still not reach 270 electoral votes.

Trump is in a similar, though deeper, hole now. Can he come back again?

The most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll (conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 1, 2020) showed former Vice President Joe Biden leading by 14 points, 53 percent to 39 percent. The most recent Fox News poll (conducted Oct. 3-6, 2020) showed Biden leading by 10 points, 53 percent to 43 percent. And a new ABC News/Washington Post poll (conducted Oct. 6-9, 2020) showed Biden up by a dozen points, 55 percent to 43 percent.

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