Is the Trump-Biden cake baked yet? - Roll Call

Finally, polls show significant movement toward Biden among crucial demographic groups, including seniors and suburbanites, particularly suburban women.

Republican strategists talk about a “shy” Trump vote, with large numbers of the president’s supporters unwilling to talk to pollsters. There may well be some voters like that, though the final 2016 polls didn’t underestimate Trump’s showing by more than a couple of points. That wouldn’t change the current trajectory of the 2020 election.

The biggest difference between 2016 and 2020, of course, is four years of Trump in the White House. In 2016, Trump could ask “what do you have to lose” in giving him a shot. Voters now know.

Biden holding progressives

Biden is also better positioned than Clinton was. He is stressing his working-class roots and approach to problems, and he appears to be both holding the progressive wing of his party and successfully reaching out to pragmatists looking for someone who represents decency and stability.

Voters still trust Trump on the economy, but they prefer Biden on almost every other issue. Indeed, the Sept. 30-Oct. 5 Pew Research Center poll, one of my favorite surveys over the years, showed Biden leading Trump decisively on both personal characteristics and issues — as well as by 10 points on the ballot test, 52 percent to 42 percent.

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