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Quick Fix
— The OH-11 special election is shaping up to be the most expensive House race of the off-year.
— House Democrats are retiring at a lower-than-expected rate, giving the party a morale boost ahead of the midterms.
— Republicans who might run for president in 2024 are flocking to Iowa for public visits and behind-the-scenes meetings, even as former President Donald Trump weighs a comeback bid.
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Days until the TX-06 special election runoff: 29
Days until the OH-11 and OH-15 special election primaries: 36
Days until the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections and OH-11 and OH-15 special elections: 127
Days until the 2022 midterm elections: 498
Days until the 2024 election: 1,227
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TopLine
JUST SPECIAL — A special election in Ohio is shaping up to be the most expensive of the off-year cycle. Candidates running in the ultra-crowded race to replace now-HUD Secretary Marcia Fudge have spent more than $1.4 million on TV, radio and digital ads.
The OH-11 special election primary is five weeks away, but it has already outpaced spending in last month’s New Mexico special election and the fast-approaching runoff in Texas’ 6th Congressional District — despite the fact that the seat isn’t competitive in the general election. Ohio’s other special election this summer, in the swingier-but-still-red-leaning 15th Congressional District, doesn’t even come close.
The 13-way primary race is a showdown between moderate and progressive Democrats, and it’s a flashback to 2016. Bernie Sanders campaign surrogate Nina Turner has led in fundraising and the polls, while Hillary Clinton is backing Shontel Brown. The district represents most of the majority-black precincts between Cleveland and Akron, along with parts of Cuyahoga County and Summit County.
Candidates running in the Democratic primary have spent more than $1.4 million on TV and radio ads so far, according to AdImpact. That’s more than the $1.3 million in the special election between Rep. Melanie Stansbury (D-N.M.) and Republican Mark Moores. In the Texas special election to replace the late Rep. Ron Wright, both sides have spent a collective $996,000 so far, though a Republican-on-Republican runoff looms next month.
Turner has spent the most on ads: She has pumped more than $1 million into TV, radio and digital spots, while Brown has spent $355,000. Right now, Turner is running a 30-second ad focused on Medicare For All, which features her late mother. Brown is on the air with an ad featuring her mother and pitches her as a “Democrat’s Democrat,” perhaps a dig at Turner.
Despite the windfall in Fudge’s old district, the Ohio election is very unlikely to shrink Democrats’ majority in the House. President Joe Biden won the dark-blue district with nearly 80 percent of the vote last year, and so did Fudge.
Ohio has two special elections slated for Aug. 3. The contentious 11-way primary race to replace former Rep. Steve Stivers (R-Ohio) has only generated $479,000 on the airwaves — mostly from Stivers himself, who has used some of his leftover funds to boost state Rep. Jeff LaRue, his desired successor. The district includes parts of Columbus, along with Athens and Wilmington, and Trump — who endorsed coal company executive Mike Carey — won it with 56 percent of the vote last year.
Down the Ballot
STAY A WHILE — House Democrats have received a morale boost ahead of the 2022 midterms: Fewer members have retired than expected so far, POLITICO’s Ally Mutnick and Sarah Ferris reported. Only six House Democrats have announced they will leave their seats this cycle. The number is expected to go up, especially when redistricting gets into full swing. But House departures are still lower than expected for a party that is likely to lose the House majority next year, if history is any guide.
GETTING IN — Author J.D. Vance plans to jump into the Ohio Senate primary as early as this week, Axios’ Mike Allen reported. Vance will launch his campaign from a factory and advised local reporters about a “special announcement” he plans to make at a rally on Thursday. Vance will join a crowded and well-funded Republican primary, which includes state Treasurer Josh Mandel, former state party chair Jane Timken, businessperson Bernie Moreno and investment banker Mike Gibbons.
— Arizona Republican Steve Gaynor launched a campaign for governor on Friday, the Arizona Republic’s Lacey Latch wrote. Gaynor is a businessperson who ran unsuccessfully for secretary of state in 2018. Gaynor joins a fast-growing Republican primary, which includes former Rep. Matt Salmon, former TV anchor Kari Lake, state Board of Regents member Karrin Taylor Robson and state Treasurer Kimberly Yee.
Speaking of Salmon, he will name Tom Hatten as his campaign chairman today. Hatten is the founder of Arizona-based Mountainside Fitness and considered running for governor himself earlier this year.
THE CASH DASH — Fundraising tactics used by political groups on either side of the aisle disproportionately target older Americans, The New York Times’ Shane Goldmacher reported. Donations can total upwards of $10,000, more than many of the people giving the cash can afford, and have sparked a debate over the ethics of online fundraising. Some strategies include “faux bill notices and official-looking correspondence; bogus offers to match donations and hidden links to unsubscribe; and prechecked boxes that automatically repeat donations.”
— Toyota is the top donor to Republicans who objected to certifying the 2020 election results, Axios’ Lachlan Markay reported. Toyota gave $55,000 to 37 Republicans who challenged the election results. In the wake of the Capitol attack on Jan. 6, some corporations paused donations to Republican lawmakers who promoted baseless claims about the election. "We do not believe it is appropriate to judge members of Congress solely based on their votes on the electoral certification," a Toyota spokesperson said.
— A trio of House Democrats launched a PAC to protect incumbents from primary challenges, NBC’s Leigh Ann Caldwell. Team Blue PAC was created by Reps. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.), Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) and Terri Sewell (D-Ala.). “Because the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, or DCCC, doesn’t engage in primaries and focuses its resources on members in the most competitive districts, Team Blue PAC will help those who might be in safe seats for the party but facing a primary challenger,” Caldwell wrote.
RONJOHN WATCH— Sen. Ron Johnson told the Wisconsin Republican Party’s state convention he is “panicked” about the state of the country. Johnson has not said whether he will seek another term, but walked on stage to chants of “six more years,” The Capital Times’ Jessie Opoien wrote. Johnson criticized Republicans for letting their politics become too national and called on the party to “run candidates at every level of public office” and build their ranks at the local level.
DAY IN COURT — The Biden administration is taking Georgia to court over its new voter restrictions, which were supported and signed into law by Republicans. Attorney General Merrick Garland alleges the new rules were “enacted with the purpose of denying or abridging the right of Black Georgians to vote on account of their race or color, in violation of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act,” POLITICO’s Betsy Woodruff Swan and Zach Montellaro wrote. More lawsuits could be coming — Garland said the Department of Justice is tracking new voting laws in other states.
BALLOT BATTLE — The fight over Pennsylvania’s proposed election bill is happening on party lines. Republican state lawmakers plan to pass the bill, and Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf has said he will veto it. But what the bill would actually do is more nuanced, The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Jonathan Lai wrote. Democrats have derided the bill as voter suppression, but “the ID requirements are weaker than what other states have enacted, it would codify things like mail ballot drop boxes into law, and create more explicit rules for ‘curing’ ballots on which voters made minor mistakes.”
— Arizona state House lawmakers approved language that would curtail Secretary of State Katie Hobbs’ powers as part of a budget bill, The Washington Post’s Elise Viebeck reported. The language lawmakers passed on a party-line vote includes election restrictions, and will soon reach GOP Gov. Doug Ducey’s desk. The language limiting Hobbs’ power is slated to expire at the end of her term. Hobbs is a Democrat, and has been critical of the state’s “audit” of the 2020 election.
WHISKEY TANGO FOXTROT — A bizarre scheme to gather dirt on Democrats and moderate Republicans is playing out in several states, The New York Times’ Mark Mazzetti and Adam Goldman reported. The heiress to the Gore-Tex fortune is among those who financed an unusual spy operation, where a pair of conservatives sought to infiltrate Democratic and moderate Republican circles. Beau Maier and Sofia LaRocca posed as Democratic activists in an attempt to gather damaging information on those who could pose a threat to Trump’s far-right agenda.
CAPITOL FALLOUT — Wisconsin Republican Derrick Van Orden spent thousands of dollars in campaign cash to visit Washington, D.C. at the time of the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, The Daily Beast’s Roger Sollenberger wrote. Van Orden was spotted on the Capitol grounds in photos from the insurrection, and campaign finance records show he spent $4,000 on transportation and hotel costs for himself, his wife and a campaign staffer. Van Orden lost his 2020 bid against Democratic Rep. Ron Kind and declared in April he is running again this cycle.
WHERE ARE THEY NOW — Robert Catron, who advised then-Rep. Scott Taylor (R-Va.), was indicted on election fraud charges last week, The Virginian-Pilot’s Jane Harper reported. Catron’s indictment means four people associated with Taylor’s 2018 campaign have been charged, though Heather Guillot, Lauren Creekmore Peabody and Roberta Marciano made plea deals and were charged with misdemeanors. The charges are related to a scandal where Taylor aides allegedly forged signatures to get an independent candidate on the ballot to siphon votes from Taylor’s Democratic challenger, now-Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.).
Presidential Big Board
THE HAWKEYE STATE — The 2024 presidential hopefuls are doing a lot more than making public visits to Iowa, POLITICO’s Alex Isenstadt reported, even as Trump weighs another presidential bid. The slate of potential candidates are meeting privately with influential GOP leaders and strategists as they lay the groundwork for presidential campaigns. Iowa Republican Party chair Jeff Kaufmann has met with former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley, for example, and prominent conservative Bob Vander Plaats has spoken with former Vice President Mike Pence.
TRUMP TRAIL — Trump played the hits during his Ohio rally, his first big-scale appearance after losing the White House last fall. The rally was billed as an opportunity to attack the Republicans who voted for impeachment, but the former president instead talked up points that appeal to his diehard base, POLITICO’s Meridith McGraw reported.
Trump hit Vice President Kamala Harris on her visit to the southern border, emphasized false claims that the election was stolen and even referenced Clinton. Several rally-goers said they hope Trump will run for president again in 2024.
CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY — “I literally own & live with 15 rescue cats. Do I sound like a run-of-the-mill Republican to you?” — Curtis Sliwa, the New York City Republican nominee for mayor.
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