You’ve probably heard this by now (or even seen it for yourself): Your Thanksgiving dinner is likely to cost more this year. And you might not be able to find all the fixings you want.
The American Farm Bureau’s annual Thanksgiving price survey, released today, shows the average cost of a Thanksgiving dinner this year is up 14% from last year. Its estimate of the average cost of dinner for 10 this year is $53.31, or just under $6 per person. Last year’s average cost was $46.90.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture recently reported the price of a whole frozen turkey is up 20% from last year (although last year’s prices were especially low due to reduced demand during the height of the Covid pandemic.) But this year’s turkey prices, as demand rebounds, are still 35% higher than the previous 3-year average, the USDA said.
Of course, specific increases in Thanksgiving-related prices and availability may vary on when and where you shop.
“Basically it’s a result of multiple issues across the supply chain,” said Patrick Penfield, professor of supply chain practice at Syracuse University’s Whitman School of Management. “Labor, energy, transportation — those costs are all up. The cost of feed is a big factor for the turkey.”
Many of those factors relate to emerging from the pandemic, he said, but there are others, including extreme weather conditions and cyber attacks on suppliers.
“We’ve never seen anything like this before,” Penfield said. “It’s not just one problem that can be fixed easily.”
Turkeys are available, Penfield said, “but the variety may not be there. Yes, you can get a turkey, but it may not be the size you want. Smaller turkeys are hard to find.”
Other items, from pumpkin to cranberries, may be in short supply in some locations.
The good news in Central New York is that the problems in this part of the country don’t seem as severe as in some other regions, Penfield said.
That’s reflected in responses syracuse.com received to questions we sent to some of the big regional supermarket chains.
Neither Wegmans nor Tops markets officials would discuss specific cost increases or availability for specific items. But they did indicate they are as prepared as they can be for this holiday season.
Essentially, both are saying “Don’t worry, we’ll have you covered.”
“Our merchandising team begins working with our meat suppliers to secure turkeys as early as January to ensure we have enough for the holiday season,” Wegmans said in a statement provided by director of community engagement Evelyn Ingram. “Going into Thanksgiving, we will continue to have shipments of turkeys coming to our stores right up to the holiday.
“Raw material and labor shortages, as well as transportation constraints are impacting suppliers around the world, creating higher costs,” the statement said. “Those costs have been passed on to retailers, increasing the price of some items. We are working hard to minimize the impact on our customers and will continue to remain competitive.”
Due to the pandemic and other issues, Wegmans took “proactive steps to secure holiday essentials earlier than usual,” the statement said. “We’ve leveraged both Wegmans brand and national brand suppliers to ensure we have options available for our customers in all the holiday essentials categories (gravy, stuffing, etc.).”
A spokesman for Tops markets issued a similar response.
“Supply chains are experiencing difficulties throughout the entire country, but we are confident that Tops has all of the fixings to make your Thanksgiving feast truly spectacular,” said Jeff Culhane, senior vice president of sales and merchandising for Tops. “Our stores are gearing up for this festive holiday so whether you are cooking for the first time, are a seasoned veteran or you don’t have time to fuss and want to preorder a Thanksgiving meal, we are ready to help.”
Culhane also pointed to Tops large selection of national brands and Tops own brand products “that will round out your recipe so that should take the worry out of your meal planning.”
At one of the area’s smaller food retailers, the two-store Syracuse Cooperative Market, prices are up even though the circumstances are different.
But availability isn’t much of an issue, according to Jeremy DeChario, general manager of the co-op, which has locations near Westcott Street and in downtown’s Salt City Market.
That’s because the co-op sources directly from local farms or through smaller distributors.
“Broadly speaking, availability from local farms is the same as it’s ever been,” DeChario said. “One of the benefits of the local farmer system we use is we don’t have the same sort of supply shock as the big guys. We’re not at the mercy of some giant processing plant.”
The co-op is getting its turkeys from Oink & Gobble Farm in Interlaken, Seneca County, and is securing them with pre-orders from customers. The price is up about 10%, DeChario said.
“We have passed an increase on, but this is the first price increase in six years,” he said. He also said there could be a supply issue with smaller turkeys, “because that’s what everyone seems to want.”
The co-op also offers a holiday produce box, hand-selected by staff, with such items as potatoes, cranberries, green beans, squash, carrots from local suppliers.
So how can you deal with the prices increases and supply issues?
Of course, one way to make sure you get everything you want is to shop sooner rather than later.
But Mary Kiernan, a culinary professor in the Food Studies Program at Syracuse University’s Falk College, has another simple recommendation:
“Tone it down,” she said.
Although people may be eager to put on a big spread after the Covid lockdowns of 2020, there are still enough lingering issues to make it possible and perhaps wise to keep things simpler this year.
“Of course everyone thinks of the big table with plenty of food and lots of people,” Kiernan said. “But Covid has sort of opened up an opportunity. Do we really need to have that much on the table?”
“To some degree, the turkey is necessary, but there are so many sides,” she said. “I would just reflect on what are the favorites and concentrate on those. It’s such a starch-filled event anyway. And does it need to be such an enormous bird?”
Don Cazentre writes for NYup.com, syracuse.com and The Post-Standard. Reach him at dcazentre@nyup.com, or follow him at NYup.com, on Twitter or Facebook.
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